娱乐棋牌

开源证券孙金钜:定增市场2020年投资展望

YUANBIAOTI:KAIYUANZHENGQUANSUNJINJU:DINGZENGSHICHANG2020NIANTOUZIZHANWANG

一、政策春风已至,再融资政策再入放松周期

DINGZENGZUOWEIZAIRONGZISHICHANGDEHEXINPINZHONG,SHOUXIANGGUANZHENGCEBIANDONGDEYINGXIANGDA。2014-2015NIANZAICHUANGYEBANZAIRONGZIFANGKAI、BINGGOUZHONGZUHEPEITAORONGZIFANGKAIDEBEIJINGXIA,2013-2016NIANYINGLAILEDINGZENGSHICHANGFAZHANDEDIYIGEHUANGJINQI,RONGZIGUIMOYIDUPOWANYI。DANZAI2017NIAN“SHISHANGZUIYANZAIRONGZIZHENGCE”HEJIANCHIXINGUIDEYANJIANGUANXIA,DINGZENGSHICHANGKUAISUHUILUO,2019NIANYIBUZU2000YIYUAN。SUIZHE2018NIANSIJIDUYILAI,ZAIRONGZIZHENGCENUANFENGPINCHUI,2020NIAN2YUE14RIZHENGJIANHUIGENGSHIDUIZAIRONGZIZHENGCEJINXINGLEDASONGBANG。ZHENGCECHUNFENGYIZHI,DIEJIASHOUYIHUISHENG,DINGZENGSHICHANGJIANGKUAISUHUINUAN,YINGLAIYOUYIGEHUANGJINQI。

二、新政解决核心需求问题,定增规模将迎来翻倍以上增长

娱乐棋牌TISHENGZHEKOUSHANGXIAN、SUODUANSUODINGQI、FANGSONGJIANCHIXIANZHI、JIANGDICANYUMENJIAN,SIWEIYITITISHENGDINGZENGSHICHANGXIYINLI。ZHEKOULVHESUODINGQIYIZHISHIDINGZENGSHICHANGDUIYUZIJINFANGXIYINLIDEGUANJIANHEXIN,CIQIANDINGZENGSHICHANGDEDIJIAWEIDINGJIAJIZHUNRIQIAN20GEJIAOYIRIJUNJIADE9ZHE,BINGQIESUODINGQIWEI12GEYUEHUOZHE36GEYUE,CIWAIZAIXIANSHOUQIJIEJINZHIHOUHAIXUYAOSHOUJIANCHIXINGUIDEXIANZHI。JIANCHIXINGUIYAOQIULIANXU3GEYUENEIJIZHONGJINGJIAJIANCHIBUDECHAOGUOZONGGUBENDE1%,DAZONGJIAOYIJIANCHIBUDECHAOGUOZONGGUBENDE2%QIEDAZONGSHOURANGFANGSHOURANGHOU6GEYUENEIBUDEJIANCHI,TONGSHIHAIYAOQIUDINGZENGGUDONGJIEJINSHOUNIANJIZHONGJINGJIAJIANCHIBUDECHAOGUOSUOCHIDINGZENGGUFENDE50%。JIANCHIXINGUIBUJINXIANZHILEDINGZENGGUDONGJIEJINHOUDELIUDONGXING,LINGYIFANGMIANHAIBIANXIANGYANZHANGLEDINGZENGGUFENDESUODINGQI。ZHENGSHIYOUYUZHEKOULVDEXIAJIANGHESUODINGQIDEYANZHANG,DAOZHILEDINGZENGSHICHANGXIYINLIDEDAFUXIAJIANG,CONGERDAILAILEDINGZENGSHICHANGDECHIXUDIMI。BENCIZAIRONGZIXINZHENGDESONGBANGJIANGDAILAIZHEKOULVDETISHENGHESUODINGQIDEDAFUSUODUAN。DINGJIADINGZENGKEYITIQIANSUOJIA,BINGQIEFAXINGDIJIADEZHEKOUYOU9ZHETISHENGZHI8ZHE,TONGSHISUODINGQIJIANBAN,JIANCHIBUSHOUXIANZHI,JIANGDADATISHENGDINGZENGSHICHANGDEXIYINLI。CIWAI,BENCIXIUDINGHAIJIANGTOUZIZHESHULIANGCONGCHUANGYEBANDEBUCHAOGUO5RENHEZHUBAN(ZHONGXIAOBAN)DEBUCHAOGUO10RENTONGYITISHENGZHIBUCHAOGUO35REN,DINGZENGDANFENDEJINEJIANGDAFUXIAJIANG,CANYUDINGZENGSHICHANGDEMENJIANDAFUJIANGDI,YEJIANGXIYINGENGDUODETOUZIZHECANYUJINLAI。

解决核心需求问题后,定增市场规模将迎来翻倍以上的增长。再融资新政之后,定价定增8折的折扣锁定18个月,竞价定增8折的底价锁定6个月,并且批文有效期有12个月,基本上所有的定增在发行端都不会有太大的困难,发行成功率将快速提升至接近100%。可以看到在解决了核心的需求问题后,仅成功率的提升和募资不满额现象的消除就能驱动定增市场规模实现翻倍以上的增长。同时上市公司在看到定增发行成功率大幅提升且发行条件进一步放宽、发行股份数量进一步提升的背景下,将会有更多的上市公司选择采用定增的融资方式,在项目的供给端也将迎来快速的回暖。可以看到在2月份再融资新政落地之后,新发定增融资预案的公司快速回暖,2月份即有49家公司发布定增融资方案,涉及融资规模超过674亿元,3月份截止3月6日已有27家公司发布定增融资方案,涉及融资规模超过356亿元。较此前月均新发预案数量在25家左右,融资规模不超过300亿的情况出现了显著的回暖。截止目前,现有已发预案的公司涉及的融资规模已达6300多亿元(其中竞价定增4900多亿元,定价定增1400多亿元)。因此,我们认为再融资新政落地后,2020年定增市场将快速回暖,市场规模将迎来翻倍以上的增长,预计2020年定增发行融资规模将超过4000亿元。

三、折价率提升、α收益回归、β收益向上,定增投资进入“黄金期”

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四、定价定增多参与,竞价定增多维度筛选

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来源:金融界网站返回搜狐,查看更多

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